standings

history

Drag teams to change standings. Click seeds to set ties.

Current

No Ties

Seed	Combos

Seed

Show for the last days.games.

Hover to highlight, click to isolate.

All

East

West

Playoffs

Lottery

Probability: {{queryprob}}

Calculate

Clear

Click picks and logic above to construct a query. Drag query text to rearrange.

instructions ▾

Click examples to calculate.

Input basic queries by clicking pick and logic buttons then press 'Calculate':

'Gets/keeps pick' and 'swap occurs' give the probability that a team gets or keeps a traded pick, or that a swap occurs. Picks with swaps are denoted by a '⇄' symbol.

Compound queries by using 'and' and 'or'. Note that only full clauses can be compounded, for example 'Sacramento picks above Orlando and Dallas' will return an error.

Negate queries by prefixing them with 'not'. Wrap compound queries in brackets before negating.

Compute conditional probalities using 'conditional upon'. 'Conditional upon' can only be used once in each query.

Order of operations is brackets, 'not', 'and', 'or'.

table

chart

Drag teams and click seeds to adjust standings. Hover to highlight. Click pick numbers to isolate, then 'chart' to restack. Hover to highlight.


Seed	Combos	Team	Exp.	Mode	TotalProb	{{n}}

		Lost picks

Exp is expected pick conditional upon keeping/receiving pick.
Mode is most likely pick conditional upon keeping/receiving pick.
Probabilities displaying as 0 are positive but rounded.

2018 draft lottery prospects

First Round

Second Round

Lottery Reform

On September 28, 2017, the NBA's Board of Governors approved a reform of the lottery system, with the changes taking effect at the 2019 lottery. The 2018 lottery will use the current system. Use the tools below to determine which system lottery bucket uses.

Winners

Draw winners, and fill the rest by reverse standings order.

The current system draws three winners. The new system draws four. Note that calculations will be slower when drawing four winners.

Combinations

Use distribution of lottery combinations.

This determines how many lottery combinations are allocated to each lottery seed. Custom distributions should sum to 1000 or 1001 combinations, but calculations will still work if they don't.

Seed	Current	New	Custom
{{n}}	{{current_alloc_base[n-1]}}	{{proposed_alloc_base[n-1]}}
Total	1000	1000	{{custom_alloc_total}}

Trades

Use

The following 2019 first round trades may be fulfilled in 2018. Clicking each trade excludes it from calculations.

Exactly one of the following 2019 first round trades must be selected. Clicking selects which is included.

SACRAMENTO

PHILADELPHIA

unprotected.
Applies if Boston receives LA Lakers' 2018 pick from Philadelphia, which is the case if it falls between #2 and #5 inclusive.

SACRAMENTO

BOSTON

PHILADELPHIA

Boston receives the better of Sacramento and Philadelphia's picks, and Philadelphia the lesser, unless either pick is #1, in which case Philadelphia keeps #1 and Boston takes the other.
Applies if Boston does not receive LA Lakers' 2018 pick, which is the case if it falls at #1 or below #5.

The following 2019 second round trade may be fulfilled in 2018. Clicking selects whether it is included.

INDIANA

BROOKLYN

if below #55.
Fulfilled in 2018 if Indiana pick is below #55.