Drag teams to change standings. Click seeds to set ties.
Current
No Ties
Seed
Combos
Seed
Show for the last days.games.
Hover to highlight, click to isolate.
All
East
West
Playoffs
Lottery
Use to calculate standings and history data.
Use games played between and inclusive.
Use each team's first games.
Use each team's last games.
Use games through inclusive for each team.
Probability: {{queryprob}}
Calculate
Clear
Click picks and logic above to construct a query. Drag query text to rearrange.
instructions ▾
Click examples to calculate.
Input basic queries by clicking pick and logic buttons then press 'Calculate':
'Gets/keeps pick' and 'swap occurs' give the probability that a team gets
or keeps a traded pick, or that a swap occurs. Picks with swaps are denoted by a '⇄' symbol.
Compound queries by using 'and' and 'or'.
Note that only full clauses can be compounded, for example 'Sacramento picks above Orlando and Dallas' will return an error.
Negate queries by prefixing them with 'not'. Wrap compound queries in brackets before negating.
Compute conditional probalities using 'conditional upon'. 'Conditional upon' can only be used
once in each query.
Order of operations is brackets, 'not', 'and', 'or'.
table
chart
Drag teams and click seeds to adjust standings. Hover to highlight.Click pick numbers to isolate, then 'chart' to restack. Hover to highlight.
Seed
Combos
Team
Exp.
Mode
TotalProb
{{n}}
Unfulfilled Trades
Exp is expected pick conditional upon keeping/receiving pick. Mode is most likely pick conditional upon keeping/receiving pick. Probabilities displaying as 0 are positive but rounded.
{{teamids[team].full_name}}
2018 draft lottery prospects
First Round
Second Round
Lottery Reform
On September 28, 2017, the NBA's Board of Governors approved a reform of the lottery system, with the changes taking effect at the 2019 lottery.
Use the tools below to determine which system lottery bucket uses.
Winners
Draw winners, and fill the rest by reverse standings order.
The new system draws the first four picks. The old system drew three.
Combinations
Use distribution of lottery combinations.
This determines how many lottery combinations are allocated to each lottery seed. Custom distributions should sum to 1000 or 1001 combinations, but calculations will still work if they don't.
Seed
Old
New
Custom
{{n}}
{{old_alloc_base[n-1]}}
{{new_alloc_base[n-1]}}
Total
1000
1000
{{custom_alloc_total}}
Trades
Include trades:
Calculating...
Odds changed!
Recalculate
Revert
Standings, ties, or settings have changed since odds were last calculated. 'Recalculate' will calculate new odds to match. 'Revert' will return standings/ties/settings to their values at the last calculation and display the relevant odds.
Error!
The program didn't understand your query.
The program didn't understand your query. Check the instructions, fix any errors, and try again. If you think this is a bug, send a screenshot of the query to contact@lotterybucket.com or @lotterybucket on twitter.