Lottery Bucket: Calculating NBA Draft Lottery Odds

Probability:

Calculate

Clear

Seeds 1-7

Trades

Seeds 8-14

Trades

Logic

Num

picks at

#1

#8

does not pick at

#2

#9

picks above

below

#3

#10

gets/keeps pick

#4

#11

swap occurs

#5

#12

conditional upon

#6

#13

and

or

not

(

)

#7

#14

Click picks and logic above to construct a query. Drag them onto query text to replace. Drag query text to rearrange.
See below to customize standings. See bottom for syntax, instructions, and examples.

Standings and Odds

Calculate

Current

No Ties

Drag teams to rearrange standings. Click seed numbers to set ties.
Click 'Calculate' here to re-calculate table, or above to re-calculate query.

Seed
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

Team Trades	W-L	GB

Combos	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	13th	14th

Seed
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Playoffs	W-L	GB
SACRAMENTO CHI ⇄
DENVER
PHILADELPHIA ⇄
LA LAKERS PHI
MINNESOTA
OKLAHOMA CITY
CLEVELAND POR
CHICAGO
BROOKLYN ⇄
DALLAS PHI
HOUSTON LAL
PORTLAND
MIAMI
MEMPHIS POR
NEW ORLEANS SAC
ORLANDO
MILWAUKEE
WASHINGTON BKN
UTAH
DETROIT
INDIANA
CHARLOTTE
BOSTON ⇄
ATLANTA
LA CLIPPERS ORL
TORONTO ORL
SAN ANTONIO
GOLDEN STATE UTA
PHOENIX
NEW YORK

Query Instructions

Click examples to calculate them above.

Basic Queries
Input basic queries by clicking pick and logic buttons then press 'Calculate':
- Example 1: 'Philadelphia picks at #1'
- Example 2: 'Boston (incl swap w/ BKN) picks above LA Lakers'
- Example 3: 'Milwaukee picks below #7'
'Gets/keeps pick' and 'swap occurs' give the probability that a team gets or keeps a traded pick, or that a swap occurs.
Picks with swaps are denoted by a '⇄' symbol.
- Example 4: 'LA Lakers gets/keeps pick'
- Example 5: 'Philadelphia (from LAL) gets/keeps pick'
- Example 6: 'Brooklyn ⇄ swap occurs'

Compound Queries
Compound queries by using 'and' and 'or'.
- Example 7: 'Boston (incl swap w/ BKN) picks at #1 or LA Lakers picks at #1'
- Example 8: 'Sacramento picks above New Orleans and Sacramento picks above Orlando'
Note that only full clauses can be compounded, for example 'Sacramento picks above Phoenix and Orlando' will return an error.
Negate queries by prefixing them with 'not'. Wrap compound queries in brackets before negating.
- Example 9: 'not Denver picks at #2'
- Example 10: 'not (Boston (incl swap w/ BKN) picks above #4 or LA Lakers picks above #4)'
Compute conditional probalities using 'conditional upon'. 'Conditional upon' can only be used once in each query.
- Example 11: 'Philadelphia picks at #1 conditional upon LA Lakers picks above #4'

Order of operations

lottery bucket