lottery bucket

Calculating NBA draft lottery odds.


standings

history

Drag teams to change standings. Click seeds to set ties.

Current
No Ties

SeedCombos
Seed
Show for the last days.games.

Hover to highlight, click to isolate.

All
East
West
Playoffs
Lottery
Use to calculate standings and history data.
Use games played between and inclusive.
Use each team's first games.
Use each team's last games.
Use games through inclusive for each team.
Probability: {{queryprob}}
Calculate
Clear
Click picks and logic above to construct a query. Drag query text to rearrange.

instructions

Click examples to calculate.
Input basic queries by clicking pick and logic buttons then press 'Calculate':
'Gets/keeps pick' and 'swap occurs' give the probability that a team gets or keeps a traded pick, or that a swap occurs. Picks with swaps are denoted by a '⇄' symbol.
Compound queries by using 'and' and 'or'. Note that only full clauses can be compounded, for example 'Sacramento picks above Orlando and Dallas' will return an error.
Negate queries by prefixing them with 'not'. Wrap compound queries in brackets before negating.
Compute conditional probalities using 'conditional upon'. 'Conditional upon' can only be used once in each query.
Order of operations is brackets, 'not', 'and', 'or'.

table

chart


Drag teams and click seeds to adjust standings. Hover to highlight. Click pick numbers to isolate, then 'chart' to restack. Hover to highlight.

Seed
Combos
Team
Exp.
Mode
TotalProb
{{n}}
Exp is expected pick conditional upon keeping/receiving pick.
Mode is most likely pick conditional upon keeping/receiving pick.
Probabilities displaying as 0 are positive but rounded.

{{teamids[team].full_name}}
2018 draft lottery prospects

First Round
Second Round
Lottery Reform
On September 28, 2017, the NBA's Board of Governors approved a reform of the lottery system, with the changes taking effect at the 2019 lottery. The 2018 lottery will use the current system. Use the tools below to determine which system lottery bucket uses.
Winners
Draw winners, and fill the rest by reverse standings order.
The current system draws three winners. The new system draws four. Note that calculations will be slower when drawing four winners.
Combinations
Use distribution of lottery combinations.
This determines how many lottery combinations are allocated to each lottery seed. Custom distributions should sum to 1000 or 1001 combinations, but calculations will still work if they don't.

SeedCurrentNewCustom
{{n}}{{current_alloc_base[n-1]}}{{proposed_alloc_base[n-1]}}
Total10001000{{custom_alloc_total}}

Trades
Use
The following 2019 first round trades may be fulfilled in 2018. Clicking each trade excludes it from calculations.

Exactly one of the following 2019 first round trades must be selected. Clicking selects which is included.

SACRAMENTO
to
PHILADELPHIA

unprotected.
Applies if Boston receives LA Lakers' 2018 pick from Philadelphia, which is the case if it falls between #2 and #5 inclusive.
SACRAMENTO
to
BOSTON
or
PHILADELPHIA

Boston receives the better of Sacramento and Philadelphia's picks, and Philadelphia the lesser, unless either pick is #1, in which case Philadelphia keeps #1 and Boston takes the other.
Applies if Boston does not receive LA Lakers' 2018 pick, which is the case if it falls at #1 or below #5.
The following 2019 second round trade may be fulfilled in 2018. Clicking selects whether it is included.

INDIANA
to
BROOKLYN

if below #55.
Fulfilled in 2018 if Indiana pick is below #55.
Calculating...
Odds changed!
Recalculate
Revert
Standings, ties, or settings have changed since odds were last calculated. 'Recalculate' will calculate new odds to match. 'Revert' will return standings/ties/settings to their values at the last calculation and display the relevant odds.
Error!
The program didn't understand your query.
The program didn't understand your query. Check the instructions, fix any errors, and try again. If you think this is a bug, send a screenshot of the query to contact@lotterybucket.com or @lotterybucket on twitter.