lottery bucket

Calculating NBA draft lottery odds.


Probability:
Calculate
Clear


Seeds 1-7
Trades
Seeds 8-14
Trades
Logic
Num
picks at
#1
#8
does not pick at
#2
#9
picks above
below
#3
#10
gets/keeps pick
#4
#11
swap occurs
#5
#12
conditional upon
#6
#13
and
or
not
(
)
#7
#14

Click picks and logic above to construct a query. Drag them onto query text to replace. Drag query text to rearrange.
See below to customize standings. See bottom for syntax, instructions, and examples.


Standings and Odds
Calculate
Current
No Ties

Drag teams to rearrange standings. Click seed numbers to set ties.
Click 'Calculate' here to re-calculate table, or above to re-calculate query.

Seed
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Team
Trades
W-LGB
Combos 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th

Seed
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
PlayoffsW-LGB
SACRAMENTO
CHI
DENVER
PHILADELPHIA
LA LAKERS
PHI
MINNESOTA
OKLAHOMA CITY
CLEVELAND
POR
CHICAGO
BROOKLYN
DALLAS
PHI
HOUSTON
LAL
PORTLAND
MIAMI
MEMPHIS
POR
NEW ORLEANS
SAC
ORLANDO
MILWAUKEE
WASHINGTON
BKN
UTAH
DETROIT
INDIANA
CHARLOTTE
BOSTON
ATLANTA
LA CLIPPERS
ORL
TORONTO
ORL
SAN ANTONIO
GOLDEN STATE
UTA
PHOENIX
NEW YORK

Query Instructions
Click examples to calculate them above.
  • Basic Queries
  • Input basic queries by clicking pick and logic buttons then press 'Calculate':
    • Example 1: 'Philadelphia picks at #1'
    • Example 2: 'Boston (incl swap w/ BKN) picks above LA Lakers'
    • Example 3: 'Milwaukee picks below #7'
  • 'Gets/keeps pick' and 'swap occurs' give the probability that a team gets or keeps a traded pick, or that a swap occurs.
    Picks with swaps are denoted by a '⇄' symbol.
    • Example 4: 'LA Lakers gets/keeps pick'
    • Example 5: 'Philadelphia (from LAL) gets/keeps pick'
    • Example 6: 'Brooklyn ⇄ swap occurs'

  • Compound Queries
  • Compound queries by using 'and' and 'or'.
    • Example 7: 'Boston (incl swap w/ BKN) picks at #1 or LA Lakers picks at #1'
    • Example 8: 'Sacramento picks above New Orleans and Sacramento picks above Orlando'
    Note that only full clauses can be compounded, for example 'Sacramento picks above Phoenix and Orlando' will return an error.
  • Negate queries by prefixing them with 'not'. Wrap compound queries in brackets before negating.
    • Example 9: 'not Denver picks at #2'
    • Example 10: 'not (Boston (incl swap w/ BKN) picks above #4 or LA Lakers picks above #4)'
  • Compute conditional probalities using 'conditional upon'. 'Conditional upon' can only be used once in each query.
    • Example 11: 'Philadelphia picks at #1 conditional upon LA Lakers picks above #4'

  • Order of operations is 'brackets', 'not', 'and', 'or'.

Traded pick information via RealGM.